Housing output increased by 11% in the first half of 2026 but delivery bottlenecks must be addressed to achieve targets – BPFI
- Housing output running at approximately 37,800 units on a rolling annual basis, with total completions expected to exceed 40,000 units for 2026
- Planning permission granted for more than 80,000 homes across Dublin at the end of Q2 2026, but only 41.9% had been activated
- The share of newly completed homes available for sale has declined at a national level from 61% in 2019 to 41% in 2026
Thursday 17th September 2026 – Housing completions rose by 11% year on year to 16,679 units in the first half of 2026, according to the latest BPFI Housing Market Monitor for Q2 2026. However, the outlook for future supply remains mixed. While commencements have recovered from the low levels recorded in 2025, planning permissions remain subdued and a significant stock of approved developments, particularly apartments in Dublin, has yet to move into construction.
Outlining the key findings from the monitor, Ali Uğur, BPFI Chief Economist stated: “After a strong start to the year, residential construction activity moderated in the second quarter, with housing completions falling by approximately 4% compared with Q2 2025. However, according to the latest Central Statistics Office (CSO) data, a total of 16,679 housing units were completed in the first half of 2026, representing an 11% increase on the same period in 2025. The slowdown in Q2 was primarily driven by weaker apartment and single-dwelling output, which declined by 12% and 4% respectively. Completions in Dublin fell by 16% year-on-year during the quarter, although the capital still accounted for more than one-third (36%) of all housing completions nationally.”
Commencement levels and planning permissions signal challenges in delivery pipeline
Turning to housing commencements, Mr Ugur continued: “Looking ahead, indicators of future supply remain mixed. Some 18,974 housing units were commenced during the first seven months of 2026, almost two-and-a-half times the level recorded during the same period in 2025, bringing total commencements to 27,847 units in the 12 months to July. While this represents a recovery from the unusually low levels recorded in 2025, it remains well below the more than 50,000 commencements recorded in 2024 and 40,500 in 2025 over the equivalent 12-month period.”
He added: “Planning permissions, a key indicator of future housing supply, continue to signal challenges further up the delivery pipeline. The latest CSO data show that 8,092 dwelling units were granted planning permission in Q1 2026, down marginally by 1% year on year. Planning activity was particularly weak in Dublin, where there was a 34% drop in permissions granted. Further to this, data from the Dublin Housing Task Force highlight the disconnect between planning approvals and delivery in the capital. Of the 80,285 permitted residential units across Dublin’s four local authorities at the end of Q2 2026, only 33,623, or 41.9%, had been activated while more than 41,000 approved apartment units had not commenced.”
“Meanwhile, mortgage activity continued to grow, with 21,132 mortgages valued at €6.8 billion drawn down in the first half of 2026, representing year-on-year increases of 5% in volume and 10% in value. First-time buyers (FTBs) remained the main driver of the market, with the value of FTB drawdowns up 10.5% over the same period, reaching a record €4.1 billion, reinforcing their central role in supporting housing demand.”
New home sales to households as a proportion of completions have fallen across every region of the country
Looking more closely at the profile of housing purchasers, Mr Ugur added: “In recent years, a notable feature of the Irish housing market has been the growing role of non-household purchasers in the residential property market. Despite a significant increase in residential construction activity, a substantial proportion of new housing output has been acquired by institutional investors, local authorities, approved housing bodies (AHBs) and other non-household buyers. This has coincided with a sharp increase in the number of private and AHB tenancies, which increased by about 52,000 or 20% in the three years up to June 2026, according to data from the Residential Tenancies Board.”
“As a result, the share of newly completed homes available for sale has declined. New home sales to households as a proportion of completions (excluding one-off houses) have fallen across every region of the country, with the national ratio declining from 61% in the twelve months ending Q1 2019 to 41% in the twelve months ending Q2 2026. The trend has been particularly pronounced in Dublin, where the ratio fell from 55% to just 25% over the same period.”
“Looking ahead, continued growth in housing output should support increased mortgage lending, particularly among FTBs. However, the scale of that growth will depend not only on the number of homes completed, but on how many are available for sale to owner-occupiers. As more new developments come to the open market, mortgage supply, particularly among FTBs, is likely to strengthen further.”
Addressing bottlenecks around project viability, infrastructure provision, and construction capacity will be critical if Ireland is to translate housing targets into housing delivery
“There have been a number of positive policy developments in recent years aimed at supporting housing delivery, including planning reform, measures to accelerate the planning and judicial review process, targeted supports for apartment viability, and initiatives to unlock delayed housing developments. On a rolling annual basis, housing output is running at approximately 37,800 units, and we expect total completions to exceed 40,000 units for 2026 as a whole.”
He concluded: “While planning permissions have averaged approximately 37,000 units annually over the past five years, this remains well below the level required to support the sustained delivery of 50,000 or more homes per annum. The large stock of uncommenced but approved developments, particularly apartment schemes in Dublin, points to growing challenges around project viability, infrastructure provision, and construction capacity. Addressing these bottlenecks will be critical if Ireland is to translate housing targets into actual housing delivery.”
ENDS/
The BPFI Housing Market Monitor Q2 2026 is available to download here.
Note: Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) represents the banking, payments and fintech sector in Ireland. Together with its affiliates, the Federation of International Banks in Ireland, and the Fintech & Payments Association of Ireland, BPFI has over 120 member institutions and associates, including licensed domestic and foreign banks and institutions operating in the financial marketplace.
Contact: Fiona Murphy, Head of Communications, fiona.murphy@bpfi.ie or Jillian Heffernan, Director of Communications, jillian.heffernan@bpfi.ie.
